International Dimensions of Civil War

نویسنده

  • Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
چکیده

Most existing research has related civil war to various factors processes within individual states. Many cases of civil wars, however, appear to have a transnational character, where the risk of conflict in one state is influenced by wars in other states as well as actors and events spanning national boundaries. In this paper, I examine how interaction and processes between states influence the likelihood of conflict within states. I evaluate a series of hypothesis on how transnational contagion and regional factors may influence both the risk of conflict and the prospect for maintaing peace. I evaluate these external influences in a model with various country specific factors often associated with civil wars. The empirical findings indicate that many such linkages between states and regional factors strongly influence the risk of conflict. Some of the commonly inferred effects of attributes of individual states on conflict appear to change once linkages between states are considered. The proposed model can succesfully classify conflicts in the estimation sample, and displays good predictive ability in an out of sample forecast.

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تاریخ انتشار 2002